I’ll keep this one quick and pulpy primarily because not a great deal has changed in the numbers.  This, if you haven’t been following, is a good thing.  Let’s get right to the charts  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

Here in the Active, Sold & New Listings chart, we can see that the number of active homes on the market has gone up slightly, but with the increased number of sales – slightly above last month’s numbers – the inventory calculation went down slightly to 4.81 months.

The Sold DOM vs. Units chart illustrates the elevated number of sales over the last month, and shows that there is still steam in this market.  This market has sold at least 7.5K homes every month since March of this year and has really put a dent into the days on market number.

When we look at the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart, we see that prices are down slightly – likely due to the lower list price – however the sales dollar volume has increased slightly for the third month in a row.

Moving to the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart, we again see the drop in sales price, but we also a steadily falling days on market number – now down under 90 days where we would love to see it stay.

As we look at the Price Change Trends chart, we can see that price reductions on active properties with price changes are actually on par with those of 2 years ago.  This represents a sort of climbing out of a race to the bottom mentality and a reclamation of value in real estate which is something that this market has lacked for the last couple of years now.

Though the numbers aren’t drastically different from the last couple of months, there is still much to be excited about and much to be concerned about as well.  On the one hand, the indicators that we are looking at in the above charts along with the new and improved $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit (it actually includes something for existing homeowners as well) paint a very promising picture for the real estate market in the next 6 months, but on the other hand, unemployment numbers are on the rise and the economy remains in shambles giving us pause when we look to the future.  I always say that the real estate market does not happen in a vacuum, and sooner or later, one factor will always catch-up with the other; we just hope that reunion is a peaceful one.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently. Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

Well it’s now official.  The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 was signed into law today, and among other measures, extends the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit, but there are some things that are important to point out.

The real difference in this iteration is the fact that now the tax credit has been expanded to people who currently own homes, however that credit is $6,500, and in order to qualify, homeowners must have owned their current home for 5 consecutive years out of the last 8.  According to sources, this would now make up to 70% of current homeowners eligible for the expanded program.

There are income restrictions (they’ve actually been increased) that you should be aware of that apply both to first time homebuyers as well as current homeowners.  For individuals making an annual income of $125K or less, or couples making $225K or less, who have not owned a home in the last three years, you are now eligible to claim the $8,000 on your taxes provided that you have an accepted contract on a home by May 1, 2010 and have it closed by the end of June.  This applies to purchases of $800K or  less, and only applies to a primary residence.

People taking advantage of this program, whether a first time homebuyer or a current homeowner moving-up into a new home, would be able to claim this purchase on their 2009 taxes, even if the purchase was made in 2010 by filing an amended return.

Politics aside, this is a move that will certainly help keep a head of steam behind this market movement that we’ve been watching do some great things for the last 5 months.  This also eliminates much of the anxious speculation that has been going on in this industry for the last few months and allows those folks who have had trouble finding something breathe a little easier.

Remember, if you’ve got any questions about the current state of the expanded tax credit, or if you have questions about Phoenix real estate in general, please let us know, and thanks for reading.

2649 E. Cedar Pl. – Chandler, AZ 85249

I’ve had messages from both agent colleagues and lenders alike informing me that the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit has been extended until April of 2010. Although the wheels are turning to perhaps make this true, nothing to date has yet been made official. I repeat, nothing has yet been made official.

We never know exactly what will happen in this buisness, but, as professionals, we’ve got a responsibility not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to making calls on this stuff. So, before we start making official pronouncements here, let’s wait until we have all the facts. I know it’s unlike me to be so brief, but I wanted to get this out there as quickly as possible.

Remember, if you’ve got any questions about the current state of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, or if you have questions about Phoenix real estate in general, please let us know, and thanks for reading.

3537 W. Spirit Ln. – Anthem, AZ 85086

Short sale opportunity in award winning master planned community. Home is located within walking distance of Anthem’s incredible community park, schools, and shopping centers. Spacious open floor plan with open loft/den upstairs. Little custom touches such as real window sills and diagonally laid 18” ceramic tile, sunscreens on all windows, water features on the pool and two gazebos in the backyard make this a special home. Home is also equipped with 20 amp outlets in garage and plumbed for a solar heat pool cover. Newly painted exterior as well. Refrigerator, washer/dryer, swamp cooler is downstairs in living room, and Jacuzzi in backyard do not convey with sale of home. This is what living in Arizona is all about. Is this a home you might like to see in person? If so, please call Jerry Murphy at 602/334-3757, or send him an email at JWMurphy@Windermere.com, or call Ben Bailey at 480/220-8022, or send him an email at Ben@ArizonaPremiereLiving.com. Find your place in the sun.

14123 W. Christy Dr. – Surprise, AZ 85379

Here is a fantastic home with upgrades throughout – from the upgraded chef’s kitchen with custom installed granite counters, island, and back splash to the upgraded carpeting and light fixtures – all sitting on a .99 acre blank-slate property. The front yard is tastefully landscaped, however, the backyard is waiting for a buyer with an imagination that is big enough to fill it. Step into this home with piece of mind; the seller had a comprehensive property inspection of the property, and anything that came up on the report as a repair item has been corrected. All in one level, this home is the perfect one to call your own.  This is what living in Arizona is all about. Is this a home you might like to see in person? If so, please call Jerry Murphy at 602/334-3757, or send him an email at JWMurphy@Windermere.com, or call Ben Bailey at 480/220-8022, or send him an email at Ben@ArizonaPremiereLiving.com.  Find your place in the sun.

In a nutshell, the Phoenix real estate market held relatively steady, and did little in the way of variation from last month, so rather than bore you to death with my typically captivating and always interesting analysis of the market, I’ll get right to the numbers and will struggle to be brief.  On with the numbers…  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

Here in the Active, Sold & New Listings chart we see that inventory is up slightly as are new listings, and sales are slightly down. 

In the Sold DOM vs. Units chart, we see that although sales are down below the level that they were this summer, days on market continue to fall.

As we look at the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart, we see that both list prices as well as sold prices are up slightly from the previous month.

The data in the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart has all been represented in one of the other charts, but it does show the market working in the the direction we like it to work.

I’ve been watching Price Change Trends chart very closely for the last year or so and first pointed out then that we were looking at some modest form of recovery, and if this is an early predictor of market prices–which I maintain it is–I think we’ll continue to see prices continue to recover, albeit modestly, through the winter months and into spring where we ought to see the market’s natural forces take over for a few months.

There, that was pretty painless:  not too verbose; kept it pretty high-level, and stayed out of the weeds.  I don’t think it would be all bad to have a couple of months just like this…the market, not my comments!  Why I oughtta…

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

Well folks, here they are again.  My apologies for the tardiness, but we’ve been busy–we’re working 2 and 3x as hard as we used to, and transactions just don’t come together anymore; they need a babysitter throughout the entire process.  Enough of my babbling.  Let’s look at the charts.  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

The Active, Sold & New Listings chart shows that there has been a definite cooling-off in the market.  Sold units are down almost exactly 1,000 from the previous month, however, new listings are down slightly as well, so the overall market inventory only increased by about 2 weeks to 4.75 months, so we are *technically* in a seller’s market (for at least part of the market anyway – see here where I talk about the tale of 2 markets)

In the Sold DOM vs. Units chart, we again see the somewhat drastic decline in units sold, but what we really see here is that it is taking less time than any other time in the last 2 years to sell a home.  Look for this number to head upward a bit next month.

What we see in the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart is that, among statistics that we’ve covered already, sale prices are down, but even more curiously, list prices are down as well.  This is probably due to a combination of reasons but is certainly not a reaction to falling sales prices, and is probably related to banks attempting to stimulate more market activity as first-time homebuyers scoop-up the last of the attractive inventor that allows them to close escrow on a home by the end of November in an attempt to qualify for the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.

In the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart, we again see the shortening in the amount of time it takes to sell a home as well as the drop in sales prices from the prior month, and  we’ll see if that is simply an anomaly.

When we take a look at the Price Change Trends chart, we continue to see the positive movement when it comes to the shrinking amount of price reductions for active listings on the market both in dollars as well as percentage.  We’d like to get that percentage of price reduction down under 10%, but we’ve got a while before that’s likely to happen, and we may see some bumps in the other direction in the next couple of months, or, at least some leveling of that trend.

This is a market that is in flux right now, and as I’ve discussed here, the approaching deadline for first-time homebuyers to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit is likely to further cool the market, and I look for homes that are currently under contract–tied up in short sale negotiations with the banks–to come back on the market, so not only will we see the usual new listings hitting the market as new active properties, but we will also see pending and active w/contingency properties coming back onto the market as well.  This may be our market’s double-dip, but this is just speculation and might not happen, and doesn’t take into account investors who are waiting to scoop-up this kind of inventory, so, as usual, we’ll just have to see what happens.  The ONLY thing I can guarantee you in this or any market is that it WILL change.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

I am taking part in the 2nd Annual Miracle Race for Mylee Grace 2009, and have formed a team that I hope can raise funds and awareness about a very debilitating set of conditions called Chiari and Syringomyelia.  Chiari and Syringomyelia are serious neurological disorders that affect the growth and development of the cerebellum where most of the body’s motor functions are housed.  There are a range of affected funtions but walking, talking, and eating are just a few.  My neighbors have a little girl named Mylee who is afflicted with this condition, and I would like to help them.  I have some donations, but I also need people to participate.

Before you think about donating, please read from the blog that Mylee’s mother writes about raising Mylee and their other little one, and I want you to just place yourself in her shoes for a moment.  Just take five minutes to read before you decide whether you can make a modest donation:  http://myleegrace2006.blogspot.com/  Then take a moment to read about Mylee:  http://www.myleegrace.com/Mylee_s_Journey.php  Please remember that every little bit counts and is certainly appreciated.

To donate, or to register—remember, I need teammates in a show of support, and I can have up to 10 on my team or if we have too many, we can probably make another team—please follow this link:  http://www.firstgiving.com/benbailey?ref=facebook&type=app  The links that you’ll want to look for are ‘SPONSOR ME NOW’ & ‘JOIN THIS TEAM’.  Again, every little bit helps.

Thanks so much for considering making a donation or participating in this event.

Howdy folks.  It’s time for the latest and greatest numbers.  This month is again, more of the same from the previous couple of months, but that is a good thing.  Let’s get right to the charts–and remember, click on the chart to enlarge (opens in a new window).

The active, sold & new listings shows us much of what we’ve seen already – that sales continue to hover around that 9,000 mark for about the 4th month in a row, driving active properties down under 40,000 leaving an inventory level slightly lower than the last month at just over 4 months of inventory.

Of note here, since we’ve already seen the sales number, is the days on market that continue to trend downward.  I will feel much better when this number sits comfortably under 90 days.

We like what we see here.  Again we see slight improvement in sale prices over last month, and in the last 4 months, we’ve seen nearly $17,000 in appreciation on the average in the Phoenix real estate market.  Look at the dollar volume in sales too, and compare that data along with sale price to the same data 2 years prior.

Here again, we see the effect that this buying frenzy is having on the days on market.

This is one that, admittedly, I’ve had some trouble explaining over the last couple of months, but I think that the trend is picking back up, and the bottom line is that, for properties with price changes, we are seeing those price decreases shrinking both in terms of actual amounts as well as in percentage of list price.  We will continue to monitor this one because Istill contend that it is a pretty good predictor of things to come.

 What does all of this say about the Phoenix real estate market?  It certainly tells me that things have been set in motion to help right this market and that sellers have capitualated to buyers’ needs and we’ve reached that point where buyers and sellers are in agreement.*  The real question is not really about what is happening now, but what will happen in the near future.  This market has been fueled in large part by first-time homebuyers taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit, and investors who have pulled much of their cash out of the equity markets and put it into real estate bargains.  What will happen when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit goes away?  What will happen if the stock market takes off, attracting investor cash, depressing bond yields, and driving mortgage rates up?  What will happen if we continue to bleed jobs at the current rate?  These are just a couple of concerns I’ve got. 

*sellers, or, more appropriately, sellers’ banks may not be happy about the terms of an offer, but the bottom line is that they are accepting the terms.

As depressing as those subjects are, I think that living in Phoenix and moving to Arizona have a universal appeal and are what have made this Valley grow like it has over the past 10 – 15 years.  We don’t have hurricanes; no floods; no earthquakes; no snow; and we have 300+ days of sunshine to top it all off.  These are the things that make this place a desirable place to live, visit, or to own a second home in, and these are the things that I feel will give us a little bit of an edge in the face of continued economic challenges.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.