Well folks, here they are again. My apologies for the tardiness, but we’ve been busy–we’re working 2 and 3x as hard as we used to, and transactions just don’t come together anymore; they need a babysitter throughout the entire process. Enough of my babbling. Let’s look at the charts. Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).
The Active, Sold & New Listings chart shows that there has been a definite cooling-off in the market. Sold units are down almost exactly 1,000 from the previous month, however, new listings are down slightly as well, so the overall market inventory only increased by about 2 weeks to 4.75 months, so we are *technically* in a seller’s market (for at least part of the market anyway – see here where I talk about the tale of 2 markets)
In the Sold DOM vs. Units chart, we again see the somewhat drastic decline in units sold, but what we really see here is that it is taking less time than any other time in the last 2 years to sell a home. Look for this number to head upward a bit next month.
What we see in the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart is that, among statistics that we’ve covered already, sale prices are down, but even more curiously, list prices are down as well. This is probably due to a combination of reasons but is certainly not a reaction to falling sales prices, and is probably related to banks attempting to stimulate more market activity as first-time homebuyers scoop-up the last of the attractive inventor that allows them to close escrow on a home by the end of November in an attempt to qualify for the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.
In the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart, we again see the shortening in the amount of time it takes to sell a home as well as the drop in sales prices from the prior month, and we’ll see if that is simply an anomaly.
When we take a look at the Price Change Trends chart, we continue to see the positive movement when it comes to the shrinking amount of price reductions for active listings on the market both in dollars as well as percentage. We’d like to get that percentage of price reduction down under 10%, but we’ve got a while before that’s likely to happen, and we may see some bumps in the other direction in the next couple of months, or, at least some leveling of that trend.
This is a market that is in flux right now, and as I’ve discussed here, the approaching deadline for first-time homebuyers to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit is likely to further cool the market, and I look for homes that are currently under contract–tied up in short sale negotiations with the banks–to come back on the market, so not only will we see the usual new listings hitting the market as new active properties, but we will also see pending and active w/contingency properties coming back onto the market as well. This may be our market’s double-dip, but this is just speculation and might not happen, and doesn’t take into account investors who are waiting to scoop-up this kind of inventory, so, as usual, we’ll just have to see what happens. The ONLY thing I can guarantee you in this or any market is that it WILL change.
Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently. Thanks again, and let me know what you think.
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